# 1 + 1.2 = DEATH

August 31, 2020

### Frightening Mathematics

Usually, I go to bed before midnight, but last Thursday I stayed up until one-thirty – I was watching the GOP Republican Convention’s efforts to persuade US voters to vote for Trump. And when I finally got to bed I kept tossing and turning.

Some time ago I promised myself that I will avoid writing opinion pieces about the US political scene, but what I saw on television kept me awake past sunrise.

It was not the words, but the mathematics of the situation that kept me awake. In the end, I could not refrain from presenting, for all eyes to see at the crack of dawn, the results of my fear-inspired, tormented, half-asleep-mind’s calculations.

Two thousand people attended the show on the White House’s South Lawn on August 27. Almost none practiced social distancing – on the contrary, they were pressed together like sardines in a can. And very, very few wore masks.

Assume that five per cent of the attendees were already infected with Covid (symptomatic and asymptomatic) and that the reinfection rate (the R factor) is 1.2. That means that those in attendance re-infected 120 people the day after they got home who, in turn, re-re-infected 144 people, who, then, re-infected 173 more. The fourth day after the event the rererereinfected would number 208, on day five 248, on day six 299 and a week from the event 358.

That’s a total of 1,550 in a week! In two weeks: over 8,600, three weeks 32,500, in a month: 120,000.

The US Covid19 mortality rate is over three per cent.

Therefore, according to my half-baked figures, the GOP will have contributed about 4000 deaths to the total of US Covid deaths during the two months following the shindig on the White House lawn, twice the number that had attended the festivities.

### 6 Responses to : 1 + 1.2 = DEATH

1. Liz Cragg says:

Perfect summation in my view!! The man is a nightmare and thank goodness I don’t live in the US. However, it has to be said, that our current PM is not much to write home about either. Deep joy.

Liz

2. Robert Davies says:

Well, for all his faults, Trudeau saved Canadians from the Coronavirus abyss and is incommensurably better than would have been the leader of the PCP who IMHO is better-suited to be a maître d’hôtel in the dining room of some one-star hotel in a dusty town of the Alberta Badlands, grease-spotted menus and all. What a fool! And you can quote me when I say that O’Toole will be unelectable in the GTA and all of Qc except for some isolated pockets of disgruntled voters more attuned to unimportant matters than to maintaining some civility in public discourse. If the Cons ever decide to ditch their useless USA PR minders and find some centrist Canadian companies with Central Canada roots to give the party serious advice, that could change. But frankly, considering what that party offers Canadians, there is no serious alternative to a Liberal-NDP alliance, that best represents the majority of Canadians. Meanwhile, like a majority south of the border, I hope that U.S. voters elect Joe Biden as a one term president and end the current nightmare of evil and lies.

3. Jacob Potashnik says:

And your estimate, like those of all good forensic accountants, is conservative. We have done so much better up here in Canada, the land of the Great White North. Our government has assured that very few have gone hungry, very few have gone without shelter and has wisely allowed the provinces to set their own “return to normal” with serious and vigilant over-sight. Of course, there are those who will always find nit-picking fault in official responses to a situation where there are no “perfect” solutions and answers, but I am proud of our young premier and dread what might have happened had others, more steeped in political dogma and blind partizan doctrine been in charge.

4. Joe Bogdan says: