Frightening Mathematics
Usually, I go to bed before midnight, but last Thursday I stayed up until one-thirty – I was watching the GOP Republican Convention’s efforts to persuade US voters to vote for Trump. And when I finally got to bed I kept tossing and turning.
Some time ago I promised myself that I will avoid writing opinion pieces about the US political scene, but what I saw on television kept me awake past sunrise.
It was not the words, but the mathematics of the situation that kept me awake. In the end, I could not refrain from presenting, for all eyes to see at the crack of dawn, the results of my fear-inspired, tormented, half-asleep-mind’s calculations.
Two thousand people attended the show on the White House’s South Lawn on August 27. Almost none practiced social distancing – on the contrary, they were pressed together like sardines in a can. And very, very few wore masks.
Assume that five per cent of the attendees were already infected with Covid (symptomatic and asymptomatic) and that the reinfection rate (the R factor) is 1.2. That means that those in attendance re-infected 120 people the day after they got home who, in turn, re-re-infected 144 people, who, then, re-infected 173 more. The fourth day after the event the rererereinfected would number 208, on day five 248, on day six 299 and a week from the event 358.
That’s a total of 1,550 in a week! In two weeks: over 8,600, three weeks 32,500, in a month: 120,000.
The US Covid19 mortality rate is over three per cent.
Therefore, according to my half-baked figures, the GOP will have contributed about 4000 deaths to the total of US Covid deaths during the two months following the shindig on the White House lawn, twice the number that had attended the festivities.
MADNESS!
Perfect summation in my view!! The man is a nightmare and thank goodness I don’t live in the US. However, it has to be said, that our current PM is not much to write home about either. Deep joy.
Liz
Well, for all his faults, Trudeau saved Canadians from the Coronavirus abyss and is incommensurably better than would have been the leader of the PCP who IMHO is better-suited to be a maître d’hôtel in the dining room of some one-star hotel in a dusty town of the Alberta Badlands, grease-spotted menus and all. What a fool! And you can quote me when I say that O’Toole will be unelectable in the GTA and all of Qc except for some isolated pockets of disgruntled voters more attuned to unimportant matters than to maintaining some civility in public discourse. If the Cons ever decide to ditch their useless USA PR minders and find some centrist Canadian companies with Central Canada roots to give the party serious advice, that could change. But frankly, considering what that party offers Canadians, there is no serious alternative to a Liberal-NDP alliance, that best represents the majority of Canadians. Meanwhile, like a majority south of the border, I hope that U.S. voters elect Joe Biden as a one term president and end the current nightmare of evil and lies.
And your estimate, like those of all good forensic accountants, is conservative. We have done so much better up here in Canada, the land of the Great White North. Our government has assured that very few have gone hungry, very few have gone without shelter and has wisely allowed the provinces to set their own “return to normal” with serious and vigilant over-sight. Of course, there are those who will always find nit-picking fault in official responses to a situation where there are no “perfect” solutions and answers, but I am proud of our young premier and dread what might have happened had others, more steeped in political dogma and blind partizan doctrine been in charge.
Robert seems to emulate the Canadian version of Trumps MAGA cult. Except we get the extreme left version here. There is no alternative to our scandal ridden, somewhat corrupt and inept Trudeau government???? Please. Which party in government brought us FREE TRADE with the US( that is so sacred now for our economy to flourish)…..reduced our deficits with the imposition of our value added tax, and the old goat Chretien swore he would abolish if elected.(The perpetrator of another Liberal scandal that required a Royal Commission) It was Harper’s government and the world respected finance minister Flaherty that allowed Canadians to now invest their RRSP funds without limiting foreign investments to 10%. What a boost to Canadians retirement funding. I could go on but will end it with this. Further help to Canadians saving for retirement the TFSA which in conjunction with the RRSP can further add to Canadians’ future retirement funding as the ROTH IRA does in the US. It was at a $10,000 annual amount that was halved halved by JT. What has Trudeau offered to Canadians nothing but skyrocketing deficits, reckless spending (pipeline that will eventfully cost $20 billion if ever completed…..) What a contribution to dealing with climate change…….and debt that will be paid for by higher taxes by our millennials and following generations. I may as well go smoke some weed. Its still cheaper at my roadside pick up.
Yes! talk about irresponsible agh!!
It is all so very disturbing to watch! and the mayhem continues!.
I cannot comprehend the gullibility of ‘some‘ of his followers! However, I do recognize the desire of the few who yearn for an opportunity to use their weaponry! as well as those to whom power is more intoxicating than a human life.
My heart aches for our neighbours (& for much of the world), should they burden themselves & us, with four more years of this despicable human being.
The USA has been a true champion of democracy & as a global citizen I long for their safe return to this cause!
I can’t even. It’s so painful to be in this USA. No words. Each day for the past four years is something new and unbelievable. As you so apply point out Robert, the rates and not going to stop with these behaviors. The election can’t come soon enough.